178
FXUS63 KDDC 292255
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunities for rain over the next few days

- Risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding on
  Thursday

- Much warmer temperatures expected next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

18z observations show a warm frontal boundary across central
Kansas with a surface high located in northeast New Mexico. An
upper level ridge is moving through the southern Rockies with a
developing shortwave and afternoon storms in the Colorado
Rockies.

For tonight CAM models have been pretty consistent with storms
developing both in northeast and southeast Colorado as the
shortwave ejects into those areas by late afternoon. The line of
storms in southeast Colorado isn`t expected to reach Kansas
until around 7pm and the northern line will reach southwest
Kansas after midnight. Highest CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg
will be just along and west of the Colorado border and the CAPE
values fall quickly as you go east into Kansas. This would
reflect the storms starting out strong in Colorado and then
gradually weakening to more general storms as they move into
Kansas tonight. Marginal risk of severe weather is in place
mainly for areas along and west of highway 283 with some hail
bigger than quarters and 60 mph wind gust threats. The overnight
storms will likely have a higher threat of localized heavy
rainfall as some areas could receive over 0.50 inch of rain in a
short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281
corridors.

Thursday as the shortwave propagates into central Kansas we
should rain chances decrease through the late morning but it
does look like the clouds should hang around for most of the day
in areas along and east of highway 83. West of 83 we should see
more sunshine and combined with low level moisture we should see
the atmosphere destabilize during the afternoon. Depending on
where the outflow boundary is left from Wednesday night`s
convection we should see a frontal boundary somewhere in the
highway 54-56 corridors ignite a round of storms as a 700 mb
shortwave moves into western Kansas by 21-00Z. CAPE values are
forecast to be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range for the areas that
receive sun with 25-30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe threat of
large hail and damaging winds will be on the table again
especially for areas along and west of highway 83.

Thursday night with weak flow aloft and the stationary outflow
boundary we are seeing a setup which could favor some localized
flash flooding. PWAT values over 1 inch and models forecast
bunkers motion of 10 kts or less is suggesting storms will have
a lot of moisture and very little movement. There is a slight
risk of flash flooding for all of southwest Kansas and high
probabilities (50-70%) of 1 inch or more of rain east of a
Liberal to WaKeeney line. While the ground can take a soaking
rain with these thunderstorms we could certainly see 1-2 inch
per hour rain rates and areas prone to flash flooding will be at
higher risk during the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Rain and storm chances continue into Friday morning as the upper
level low will move into central Kansas by mid morning. Rain
will become more spotty in the afternoon as some areas of 700 mb
lift will reside in central and western Kansas mainly around the
I-70 corridor and the Colorado border.

Ensemble trends through the weekend and early next week are
showing more of a zonal to slight ridging pattern. Storm chances
become much less during next week with only 20-30 POPs due to
some pop up storm chances mainly in central Kansas. The bigger
story is the warm up in temperatures. Euro and GEFS ensembles
are showing 50-70% chances of 90 degree highs starting Monday
and continuing into the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures
are forecast to be in the 20-25 (C) range which would reflect
good warming to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The TAFS will undoubtedly need at least some minor amendments
as the shift progresses, and convection shows its hand across
the area through 12z. The setup is similar to last evening, with
marginally severe storms, mainly hail storms, that will be
moving out of Colorado in the late evening and running into a
less favorable environment for widespread severe thunderstorms.
Still, the moisture and warm temperature advection will provide
the impetus for sustained updrafts propagating east of highway
83 overnight. The HRRR model shows a gust front outflow boundary
moving east of Liberal along the KS/OK line around 7 or 8 UTC.
Expect ceilings to drop to around 2k ft in thunderstorms will
lingering stratus developing behind the storms heading into the
morning hours. HREF Low cloud probabilities are in the 40-60
percent area for IFR cloud development, at any terminal after
9z.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell