Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
944 FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 3711 (S11W81, Axx/Alpha) produced an M1.1/Sf at 19/0638 UTC as it made its way to the western limb. Region 3713 (S15W27, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) continued to evolve and exhibited moderate growth in its intermediate and leader spots, but has only produced low level C-class flares recently. Region 3712 (S24W39, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), the largest region on the disk, displayed separation in the intermediate and trailer spots, but was quiet this period. Region 3716 (N10W32, Dki/Beta-Gamma) showed consolidation in its leader spots, as well as growth in its intermediate and trailer spots. New Regions 3718 (N15E13, Cro/Beta), 3719 (S12E68, Cro/Beta) and 3720 (S04E77, Dao/Beta) were numbered this period, but remained mostly quiet. At approximately 19/0910 UTC, coronal dimming was observed just north of Region 3718 as an approximately seven degree long filament disappeared in GONG H-Alpha imagery. Analysis will be conducted as LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available. At present, no known CMEs are expected to have an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 20-22 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713 and 3716. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 22 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 20-22 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected continued, yet weakening, CH HSS influences. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT and wind speeds decreased from 575 km/s to near 490 km/s during the period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. .Forecast... A gradual decline in solar wind enhancements is expected on 20 Jun. A negative polarity coronal hole is likely to move into a geoeffective position on 21 and 22 Jun, increasing the chances for additional enhancements in the solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to a mildly disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 20 Jun as CH HSS effects diminish. Unsettled conditions are expected on 21 and 22 Jun, with active levels possible on 22 Jun, with the arrival of the CH HSS mentioned in the solar wind forecast.