Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
721 FXXX12 KWNP 180031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with multiple C-class flares and three M-Class flares. There are currently seven regions on the visible disk with the two most complex areas near center disk. Active Region 3712 (S26W12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.5/Sn flare at 17/0804 UTC and an M1.5/1b flare at 17/1046 UTC which had an associated Type-II (411 km/s) radio sweep. Region 3712 remained relatively stable, with slight growth and penumbral consolidation observed across the intermediate spot area. Region 3716 (N10W05, Dkc/beta-gamma) continues to grow larger with an increasing spot count, but was quiet. The remaining regions were either stable or experienced slight decay. There are currently no obvious Earth-directed CMEs evident in the available imagery at time of issue. The CME off the SE in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 17/0824 UTC is believed to be associated with activity on the far side. A CME associated with the M1.5/1b flare at 17/1046 UTC produced local dimming with much of the ejecta seen in LASCO C2 moving to the SW beginning at 17/1112 UTC. Further analysis is pending. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 18-20 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712 and possibly Region 3716. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 20 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S2 (Moderate) levels between 18-20 Jun as Active Regions that are currently at center disk move into more geoeffective positions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind has been slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) associated with a positive polarity coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speeds ranged between 400-560 km/s since 00 UTC and have oscillated around 450 km/s through the day. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT at 17/1659 UTC and the Bz component has been predominantly negative reaching a minimum of -10 nT at 17/2321 UTC. The phi angle was moslty positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 18-19 Jun due to continued influence from the positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels in response to a disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over 18-19 Jun, with periods of active levels likely on 18 Jun, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by 20 Jun.