Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
441 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3712 (S26W05, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.5/Sn flare at 17/0804 UTC, and an M1.5/1b flare at 17/1046 UTC which had an associated Type-II (411 km/s) radio sweep. Region 3712 underwent slight overall decay with penumbral consolidation observed in the intermediate spot area. Region 3716 (N10E06, Dkc/beta) increased in areal extent and total spot count, but remained quiet. The remaining regions were stable. A CME off the SE in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 17/0824 UTC is believed to be associated with activity on the far side. A CME off the SSE in C2 imagery at 17/0848 UTC, likely associated with the M1.5/Sn flare at 17/0804 UTC, is being analyzed for an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 17-19 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 19 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 17-19 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was weakly disturbed. Total field strength reached a peak of 10 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward at around -7 nT between 16/1430-1800 UTC. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from a low of around 400 km/s early in the period to a peak of around 540 km/s. The phi angle was variable throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 17-19 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to a disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over 17-19 Jun, with periods of active levels likely on 18 Jun, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.