Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
635 FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels following an M2.4 and an M1.1 from Region 3712 (S26W26, Ekc/BGD) at 18/1123 UTC and 18/1220 UTC, respectively. Region 3712 was one of three complex regions including Region 3713 (S16W13, Esi/Beta-Gamma), and Region 3716 (N10W19, Dki/Beta-Gamma) showing growth, but were relatively quiet until Region 3712 produced the M2.4 flare. The remaining numbered regions were either stable or in decay. A new region with three spots emerged near S08W15 and will be numbered if it persists. Analysis of a CME first visible in LASCO C3 imagery around 1418 UTC emerging from the southeast quadrant suggested it was a far side event. Modeling of an earlier CME emerging from the southwest suggested it would miss Earth. An approximate 8 degree filament structure centered near N45W30 was observed lifting off at 18/1610 UTC. At 18/1636 UTC a prominence structure was also observed lifting off in the NW. The CME off the NW limb beginning at 18/1724 UTC appears to be a combination of the two events. Further analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 19-21 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712 and Region 3716. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 21 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind characteristics suggested a high speed stream (HSS) associated with a positive polarity coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed ranged between 515 and 630 km/s for most of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from Bt of 11 nT at the beginning of the period to end near 5 nT. Bz dipped to near -5 nT but averaged near zero. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during 19 Jun as the positive polarity CH HSS remains geoeffective. Barring the passage of any unidentified transients, conditions should return to near background levels by 20 Jun. A negative polarity coronal hole is anticipated to become geoeffective on 21 Jun, accompanied by a characteristic increase in wind speed. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels in response to a disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are likely on 19 Jun, with a return to mostly quiet conditions by 20 Jun as CH HSS effects diminish. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 21 Jun with the arrival of the CH HSS mentioned in the solar wind forecast.