816
FXXX12 KWNP 210031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Sep 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3831 (N12W09, Dao/beta)
produced the strongest event of the period, a C3.9 flare at 20/1457 UTC.
Minor growth was observed in its trailer spot over the past 24 hours.
Three new sunspot groups were assigned numbers: Region 3832 (N13W45,
Cro/beta), Region 3833 (N21W02, Bxo/beta), and Region 3834 (S14E65,
Dso/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) on 21-23 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,240 pfu at 20/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
on 21-23 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
below warning threshold over 21-23 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total magnetic field
strength was between 4-7 nT. The Bz component was primarily northward.
Solar wind speeds ranged from ~375-425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to increase above background levels
over 21-22 Sep due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH
HSS. Solar wind parameters will likely return to nominal levels on 23
Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled conditions
over 21-22 Sep due to anticipated CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are
expected on 23 Sep.