Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
200 FXXX12 KWNP 170031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flares were a C5.9 at 16/0125 UTC from Region 3824 (S04W40, Csi/beta-gamma) and a 9.6 at 16/2357 UTC from Region 3825 (S16E20, Eai/beta-gamma). Slight decay and separation was observed in Region 3824. Slight growth occurred in the leading spots of Region 3825. New Region 3828 (S13E75, Hhx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 17 Sep. Probabilities are decreasing to a chance for M-class flares on 18-19 Sep as Regions 3814 and 3822 rotate around the NW limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,240 pfu at 16/1215 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels continued to be elevated through the period (below S1- Minor), reaching a peak flux of 4.72 pfu at 16/1110 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to moderate levels on 17-19 Sep due to CME influence. There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) levels on 17-19 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence for the majority of the period. Solar wind speed averaged around 455 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-10 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-9 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. At 16/2249, the total magnetic field increased from 9-16 nT, reaching a peak of 18 nT, while Bz turned south reaching -13 nT before turning variable. Solar wind speeds also increased at that time, from approximately 440 km/s to 580 km/s. This activity indicated the shock arrival from the 13-14 Sep CMEs. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to remain under the influence of the 13 and 14 Sep CMEs early on 17 Sep. Conditions are expected to subside by 18 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The activity at the start of the day was likely the result of continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. The active conditions reached at the end of the UTC day were related to the shock arrival from the 13-14 Sep CMEs. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely, on 17 Sep with the influence of the 13 and 14 Sep CMEs. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18-19 Sep as CME effects diminish.