Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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169 FXUS63 KDLH 141755 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1255 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be well above normal through much of the next week, at times 10-15F above normal. - There will be a chance, 20-50%/15-30%, for showers/thunderstorms today into tonight. - Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms will continue into next week but no widespread significant rainfall is expected into late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A pattern featuring temperatures above normal, well above at times, will continue through much of the next week. The upper pattern will feature ridging over the northeast CONUS with an upper trough developing and moving into the West Coast through the weekend. The Northland will be under southwest flow aloft through much of the next week but no strong systems are expected into late week. A cold front will move toward the Northland today but stall and weaken before it gets too far east into the Northland. Area radar showed a line of showers and a few thunderstorms extending north to south through western Minnesota. Most of the guidance has this line moving slowly east and lifting north with most of the rainfall remaining west of our CWA. Radar trends however suggest western counties will get clipped by the rain and we have some low POPS there this morning. Chances for more showers will develop further east into the Northland including northwest Wisconsin. PWAT values will rise to 1.2-1.6" from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase today and range from 20-50%. Significant rainfall is unlikely as the coverage of the showers/storms will be low. Most of the showers/storms will end this evening. Fog early this morning, especially around Lake Superior, will lift by mid to late morning then return tonight. There will be periodic chances for more showers and thunderstorms into next week with the above normal temperatures and moisture continuing. Despite the chances for rain, significant rainfall is not expected as most of the systems affecting the region will not be particularly strong. A look at the ECMWF ensemble members through late next week reveals most members forecasting weekly rainfall amounts less than a half inch. However, there may be an opportunity for a stronger system sometime in the Friday-Sunday period of next week as the western trough moves into the region and develops a stronger surface low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A dissipating front moving into the area today will help generate some showers and isolated storms this afternoon and evening. I have included a TEMPO group for -TSRA for KHYR for several hours this afternoon. A few showers may linger overnight, but will be low in coverage and have left them out of the terminals for now. For most locations, I expect VFR conditions this afternoon and evening, with MVFR conditions should a -TSRA move across one of the terminals. After 05z, MVFR to IFR visibilities with ceilings as low as IFR to develop for KDLH, KHIB and KHYR, with no worse than MVFR possible for KINL and KBRD. All sites should return to VFR by 14z. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Easterly winds will occur today and be from 5 to 15 knots for most. The Twin Ports area has the best chance at seeing the stronger wind. Fog will occur this morning but is expected to lift through the morning. We will continue a Dense Fog Advisory for the far southwest arm of the lake through 10 AM CDT. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. The wind will decrease tonight then be about 5 to 15 knots again on Sunday. More fog will be possible tonight as above normal moisture remains over the region. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...LE MARINE...Melde