834
FXUS63 KDLH 101732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet today with high pressure in control.

- Chances for storms return for Tuesday and Wednesday with some
  strong to severe storms possible as well.

- Warm and unsettled conditions persist for the remainder of the
  week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High pressure was centered over central Manitoba early this
morning and extended across much of the Northern and Central
Plains and the Upper Midwest bringing clear skies and quiet
conditions. Some patchy fog was observed across the Northland
during the early morning hours and has been dense in spots. Any
lingering fog is expected to burn off quickly after sunrise.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s across portions of
the area and a Frost Advisory remains in effect for those areas
through 7AM. Mainly sunny and quiet conditions are expected for
today with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. RH values this
afternoon will fall below 30 percent in mainly areas,
especially along and north of the Iron Range and into the
Arrowhead and in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Winds
will be light, however, which will limit any fire weather
conditions.

Heading into tonight, an upper level trough and surface cold
front will move across the Northern Plains and into the Red
River Valley of the North by daybreak Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front and may start
creeping into our far western zones after midnight. Models still
differ on the timing of this activity with the NAM and Euro
being the most progressive. The front will slowly work across
the Northland through the day Tuesday and Tuesday evening with
showers and storms persisting. There is a narrow window of
opportunity for a few strong storms roughly from the I-35
corridor into the US 53 corridor in northwest Wisconsin during
the afternoon and evening hours. If there are breaks in the
clouds that allow for some surface heating, Tds will approach
60F with bulk shear near 50 knots and CAPE approaching 500-1000
J/kg. This may lead to a minor wind and hail threat, but is very
conditional on surface heating.

Another trough/shortwave combo embedded in nearly zonal flow
aloft will work across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the timing of this system,
better surface heating is expected across the region through the
day prior to storm development. Forecast soundings show CAPE
around 3000+ J/kg in the region with bulk shear in excess of 40
knots. Additionally, 700-500mb lapse rates will be approaching
8C/km. This parameter space lends itself to a large hail threat
in the presence of organized storms, which is supported by
other mesoscale and synoptic factors prior to upscale growth
heading into the evening and overnight hours as a low level jet
moves into the area. This will then see the threat shift to one
of damaging winds. The best chance for the strongest storms
across our area will be along and south of a Brainerd to Duluth
line and all of northwest Wisconsin, but our entire forecast
area may see strong storms as well.

Additional chances for showers and storms will then be seen over
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Highs from
Wednesday on will be in the 70s with some lower 80s at times.
This would result in highs running near to slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions with light winds will last through the day and
tonight. Early Tuesday morning, a cold front will move eastward
across the Northland bringing showers and thunderstorms.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will accompany the heaviest rain and ceilings
should lift an hour or two after the front has passed in the
late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High pressure will keep light and variable winds across western
Lake Superior today and tonight. An approaching cold front on
Tuesday will see winds turn southerly at 5 to 15 knots with
gusts to 20 to 22 knots near the Twin Ports during the afternoon
hours. This may lead to a short period of conditions hazardous
to small craft. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to
move through during the day and into the evening as well. Storms
may contain gusty winds and small hail. Winds then turn westerly
behind the front for Tuesday night and Wednesday at 5 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 knots. Another chance for showers and
storms will be seen Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and
some storms may be strong to severe.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH