779
FXUS63 KDLH 120525
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue this afternoon and into the evening. There is
  a slight chance for stronger storms in NW WI.

- Severe weather is expected on Wednesday, primarily during the
  late afternoon into the evening. The main concerns will be
  very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging wind gusts though
  there is a low-end tornado threat too.

- An active warm and wet weather pattern going forward, with
  additional shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday, late
  Saturday into Sunday, and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The active pattern continues with warm to hot air making its
presence known this week. These temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal, but accompanying them will be surges of
moist air. This unstable environment will fuel strong storms
several times this week.

Skies clear behind a cold front this afternoon allowing for a
couple of hours of heating. Areas near Brainerd are already up
to 75 to 80 degrees meanwhile temperatures are in the 40s along
the North Shore. There will be some boundaries to work with and
if anything does get going, there could be just enough oomph to
have to keep an eye on. A narrow meridionally oriented CAPE
ribbon with values exceeding 1000 J/kg this evening in concert
with 25 knots of effective shear may provide just enough to
cause a thunderstorm or two which may be strong.

Things quiet down overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes, but
moisture advection will move 1.5" PWAT air into the region.
Meanwhile an upper level jet max will punch in from the west
MUCAPES crawl into the 2000 J/kg range while wind shear exceeds
40 knots with fairly linear hodographs giving a good threat for
large hail and downdraft CAPE`s exceed 1000 J/kg giving the
eventual wind threat as convection evolves. Some guidance favors
a more discrete mode to begin with, but a handful of members
evolve the convection into a linear segment Wednesday
afternoon. While the parameter space isn`t too abnormal, it is
definitely towards the higher end of the spectrum for our
forecast area. While the main threat will be in the evening, an
upper level shortwave will move overhead overnight and will
likely keep convection going into Thursday. Eventually drier air
sneaks down from Canada on Thursday evening suppressing the
precipitation.

The next heat dome arrives on Saturday with another rush of warm
and humid air from the south with PWATs getting close to 1.75".
A long and strong low level jet will aid in fueling convection
again Saturday evening. With all the active weather and warm
rain processes in effect may have to start to be more concerned
about flooding with this system as it lingers just enough with
high enough precipitation rates to potentially cause issues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Mostly clear skies to start the forecast period. There is some fog
development over HYR that should dissipate later this morning.
Satellite does show some rain showers moving into northwest MN that
will eventually spread across the region through this morning. A few
embedded storms will be possible in the later morning hours. After
this first wave of activity a more severe weather day will be on tap
for the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail in excess of 2" will
be possible as well as damaging winds and some isolated tornadoes.
This activity is expected to diminish west to east as a cold front
moves across the region through the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Departing system may bring some showers and isolated
thunderstorms to Western Lake Superior this evening. The threat
is there, but confidence is only medium. A better system arrives
on Wednesday afternoon and evening and this could bring severe
storms to western Lake Superior with large hail and damaging wind
gusts being the main threats. Otherwise background wind gusts
and waves remain below 20 knots and 2 feet respectively until
Thursday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Wolfe