452
FXUS63 KDLH 201126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today with highs in the seventies.

- A cold front will move through the Northland Saturday and a
  few strong storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and
  early evening over mainly northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday
  will range from the lower seventies over western areas to
  around eighty over northwest Wisconsin.

- Temperatures will be closer to normal values Sunday into early
  next week with a slight warming trend into late week.
  Widespread significant rainfall is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Weak ridging will move through the region today leading to dry
conditions with highs in the seventies. Mixing will increase
this morning leading some westerly gusts of 15 to around 20
mph.

Warm air advection will occur tonight ahead of a cold front. A
southerly low level jet as seen at 850mb from 30-40 knots will
aid in producing lift for some showers/thunderstorms after
midnight over parts of central and northeast Minnesota to far
northwest Wisconsin. A cold front will move west to east through
the Northland during the day Saturday into the evening with
PWAT values rising to around 1.3" ahead of the front. MUCAPE
will build to around 1000J/kg during the afternoon into
northwest Wisconsin. Effective shear is forecast to be around 35
knots and mid-level lapse rates will be around 7.5C/km. There
will be a narrow window Saturday afternoon into early evening
over northwest Wisconsin where a few strong thunderstorms will
be possible along and ahead of the front. There is a non-zero
chance for a severe storm or two.

Cooler air will sweep across the Northland Saturday night behind
the front and highs Sunday will be near normal values in the
sixties. High pressure will build in Saturday night into
Sunday. Cool temperatures Saturday night may lead to some frost
in spots, mainly over far northern Minnesota.

Ridging will build over the West Coast late in the weekend into
early next week with mainly dry conditions with temperatures
near or slightly above normal values across the region. A
shortwave is forecast next Tuesday but precipitation chances are
minimal.

The upper ridge will move east into the Northern Plains by mid-
week, continuing slowly east through late week. This will keep
much of the region dry but temperatures will rise a bit mid-late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

An area of clouds with bases from MVFR to low VFR were occurring
from near KY49 to KINL and were moving east. There was also some
patchy fog and webcams at KHIB showed some ground fog. The fog
will lift around or shortly after 13Z. Low VFR or MVFR ceilings
will continue at KINL into early afternoon and should move into
KHIB this morning and even KDLH will see a period of broken
ceilings. These clouds continue will east with drier air moving
in behind. Mixing will deepen today and will lead to gusty
winds of 15 to 20 knots at times. The wind will diminish this
evening.

Warm air advection and a low level jet will lead to increasing
clouds late tonight along with a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms at KBRD/KDLH/KHYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

West or southwest winds from 10 to around 15 knots will occur
today with gusts of 15 to near 25 knots. The strongest gusts
will occur along the South Shore and from Grand Marias to Grand
Portage. The wind will diminish tonight then briefly become
easterly on Saturday ahead of a cold front. The wind will
switch to west or northwest behind the front Saturday evening
and gust from 15 to 25 knots. A few thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday into Saturday evening ahead of the cold
front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde