862
FXUS63 KDLH 231745
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain and some thunderstorms continue today into
  this evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- Severe thunderstorms expected (risk level 2 out of 5) Monday
  evening and night.

- Quieter weather Tuesday and Wednesday before thunderstorm
  chances return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the area again
today, mainly driven by steeper lapse rates in the cyclonic flow
in the wake of the surface low that passed to our south
yesterday morning. We will also have some shortwave within the
broader scale trough axis moving across the area. The
probability for severe storms is quite low, and we are mainly
expecting some brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Highs
should rise into the 70s for everywhere, with the cloud cover
generally keeping temperatures cooler.

Monday is our next day of concern with a Slight Risk of Severe
storms from SPC. We have been watching this potential for a few
days, with a wedge of warm humid air pushing into the area from
the southwest and a warm front extending northwest to southeast
across the area. The models are showing that we get high to even
extreme levels of instability, but also a pretty significant
cap with a layer of warm air around 800mb of over 20c and 700mb
temps of over 10C. Even if we can`t break through that cap
during the daytime, a low level jet may manage to break through
it during the evening. Deep layer shear of 40 knots or more
during the evening in combination with this CAPE tells us that
if we can get that cap to break, we could have a serious severe
weather event during the late afternoon and evening. We still
have a lot of questions about this severe weather potential,
most of which circle around breaking that cap. I think at least
a portion of the area will bake under that cap with sunshine and
hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures creeping into
the mid 80s, which is most likely from the Brainerd Lakes
southeast through the Hinckley area. Farther northeast is more
likely to get storms and will be cooler. Unfortunately, this may
lay out across some of the areas that have already had flooding
from the storms over the last week. While this should move a
lot faster, any rain upon these areas is not a good thing.

The warm and humid airmass sticks around for Tuesday, so there
will be lingering showers and storms around northwest Wisconsin.
Highs to get on the warm side once again for Tuesday, with
highs once again in the 80s for a large portion of the area. A
much cooler and drier airmass moves in for Wednesday, with high
temperatures cooling back into the 70s with some sunshine and
quieter weather.

Another period of wet weather with showers and thunderstorms is
expected to affect the area in the Thursday through Saturday
time frame, with several rounds of storms expected. At this time
there is not much agreement on timing or strength, so have kept
pops to chances for now. Warmer temperatures on Thursday and
Friday should be followed by cooler temperatures for Saturday as
a larger scale upper trough moves across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon with ceilings varying between MVFR and VFR. As high
pressure builds this evening into tonight, expect improvement to VFR
areawide. Fog development late tonight has seen a noticeable upward
trend in recent model runs, especially for KHIB. Given the strong
upward trend for fog in KHIB tonight, visibility was reduced to
LIFR. Other terminals likely to see at least IFR fog tonight will be
DLH and HYR. Once fog dissipates, VFR conditions will once again
return for Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

West to northwest winds of 10 knots or less will slowly back to
the west to southwest this morning, then back still farther
into the southwest to south late tonight. Monday winds will
increase out of the southeast and pick up to 10 to 15 knots,
then turn westerly as a front moves through the area Monday
evening and overnight. The west to southwest winds increase
still farther on Tuesday with gusts approaching 20 to 25 knots,
when a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for parts of the area.
Winds decrease once again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...LE