493
FXUS63 KDLH 242326
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly quiet weather continues this week with above
normal temperatures.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A shortwave continues to lengthen across the Upper Midwest today,
pushing a weak front across Minnesota. There has been some slightly
more robust strato-cumulus development along this front from
International Falls to the Brainerd Lakes, but cloud bases are still
high with fairly dry air at the surface. A couple light showers
might be possible but rainfall amounts of only some scattered
hundredths are possible. As this pushes through some lingering higher
dewpoints in the 50s could allow for patchy dense fog development
overnight into Wednesday morning.

As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, joining
up with the tropical disturbance expected to impact the eastern Gulf
later this week, ridging develops over the Northern Plains. This
will lead to a gentle warm up with highs mid to upper 70s mid
through Saturday. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but
is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s heinous summer-
like heat wave as dewpoints are unlikely to meet or exceed 60F. A
lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to
good cool downs overnight. Global ensembles bring back a more
widespread chance of precipitation sometime early next week as a
disturbance returns from the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be
dependent on how fast the ridge breaks down. Right now, model
agreement really starts to fall apart around Sunday/Monday and
precipitation return timing continues to push further back, so
confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Fog is the main concern with this terminal forecast. Radiation
based fog should develop for KDLH, KHIB and KHYR in the 10z-13z
time range, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected. KHIB may
get into IFR visibilities, but the others should remain MVFR.
Winds of less than 5 knots are expected through this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

No significant weather or winds expected over the next couple days.
Winds should become southwesterly Wednesday and some gusts up to 20
knots with some waves up to 3 feet feet are possible near Grand
Portage for a short period in the late afternoon and early evening.
Fairly light onshore flow is expected Thursday with an afternoon
lake breeze developing out of marginal southerly winds in the
morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Levens