945
FXUS63 KDLH 181747
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1247 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening
  with large hail up to quarter size and gusty winds being the
  biggest concern

- Short dry spell Saturday night and Sunday morning before our
  active weather pattern returns next week with multiple periods
  of rain through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is
moving through the area this morning as a low pressure system
and cold front advance through the area. An upper level
shortwave will also move across the area this afternoon, and as
it interacts with the front, we should have a decent trigger for
thunderstorms. How strong the storms get depends on just how
much instability we can build ahead of the front. Deep layer
shear will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe
storms, though I do not expect this to be a widespread threat.
This will also be confined to along and east of the cold front,
depending on where it is located by early afternoon. It will be
warm and humid ahead of the front, with highs getting into the
low 80s for northwest Wisconsin and 70s for northern Minnesota.
These temperatures will be well above normal, but nowhere close
to record highs, which are around 90.

Behind the cold front tonight and Sunday morning I expect a
period of quieter weather with cooler temperatures, with highs
in the 70s. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the area,
producing lighter winds as well.

Our next chance of precipitation moves in Sunday afternoon and
night as yet another shortwave and surface low system moves
towards the area, and then across the area on Monday, bringing a
higher potential (60% or more) for more than a quarter inch of
rainfall, especially over northwest Wisconsin, closer to the
surface low track. Much of the area will get a break in
precipitation Monday night.

Another round of precipitation as a fairly potent shortwave and
a strong surface low moves from the KS/NE high plains north-
northeast across IA and then across WI Tuesday through
Wednesday. For now there is fairly decent ensemble agreement on
this general pattern, and it appears most members bring the
surface low to the southeast of the forecast area. This should
bring mainly rain/rain showers and less thunder, but the farther
north the track, the more potential we will have for
thunderstorms and perhaps even severe weather. The more
southerly track for now favors cooler temperatures for Tuesday
and Wednesday as well. Lingering smaller precipitation chances
linger Thursday through Saturday along with cooler temperatures
in the wake of the stronger mid week system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A cold front is passing through this afternoon. At DLH, wind
direction is expected to become more westerly through the next
hour or two before direction settles at westerly later in the
afternoon. The chance for thunderstorms at DLH has diminished
considerably. Maybe a 5-10% chance that a storm could erupt
close to the terminal within the next hour and a half or so,
but more likely to remain dry at this point with storm
initiation further west. Otherwise, blustery winds continue
through early evening before weakening. VFR conditions expected
through the period.

Elsewhere in MN, anticipating dry VFR conditions with only the
slightest chance for a pop-up shower this afternoon since the
cold front has passed already. At HYR, there is about a 30-40%
chance for a thunderstorm just before the cold front passes.
Latest models suggest storms will develop further east, but
there remains a possibility that a storm could impact the
terminal. Expect winds to shift to westerly at HYR this
afternoon and decrease in speed overnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Northeast winds today will switch around th the west-southwest
and increase in the wake of a cold front. These stronger winds
are expected to cause hazardous conditions for small craft from
late this morning through the afternoon and evening before
diminishing again overnight tonight. The strongest winds are
expected along the South Shore and around the Twin Ports. The
southwest winds continue on Sunday, and we may get a period of
hazardous conditions once again Sunday afternoon, but this time
along the North Shore north of Grand Marais. Winds begin to
switch around to the southeast and then east Sunday night, and
then northeast by Monday morning. For now it does not appear
winds will be strong enough for hazardous conditions on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ144>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...LE