194
FXUS63 KDLH 241119
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
619 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures today warm to well above
  normal for mid to late week.

- A 10-30% chance of rainfall returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A shortwave trough diving southeastward across the northern U.S.
Plains early this morning is draping a cool front out ahead of
it into the Upper Midwest. Very weak mid-level forcing
associated with the cool front is pushing into north-central
Minnesota right now and producing widely scattered high-based
and low-topped rain showers. Maximum forecast rainfall is a few
hundredths of an inch into the sunrise hours this morning for
the Brainerd Lakes region and western Iron Range.

Temperatures today are forecast to be slightly above normal in
the upper-60s to near 70 ahead of incoming further warming for
mid to late this week.

A stought area of high pressure builds over the Southern U.S.
High Plains today into tonight and extends a high-amplitude
blocking ridge from the low to mid-levels. This setup favors
another bout of very warm temperatures beginning Wednesday and
lasting at least through the weekend. Forecast high temperatures
in the upper-70s to around 80 F would be 12 to 17 F above normal
for late September.

Forecast guidance has the ridge flattening out as Pacific
shortwaves try to move through southern Canada this weekend
which would place westerly flow over much of northern Minnesota.
A persistent strong area of low pressure over the Deep South
though could create light northerly to northeasterly flow over
northwest Wisconsin this weekend, depending on the track of the
low and how much the ridge flattens out. Either way, this
pattern favors dry weather continuing in the Northland until
maybe next Monday when a Pacific shortwave could sneak across
the Northern U.S. Plains and into the Upper Midwest for a 10-30%
chance of rain showers again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail for all terminals outside of the coastal
Arrowhead where IFR to MVFR prevail this morning. A few high-
based showers are expected still through 14Z for north-central
Minnesota as a very weak cool front slowly drags through the
state. Under a shift to onshore easterly winds off Lake Superior
and trailing the cool front, fog builds into South Shore and
Arrowhead terminals around 09Z and lingering into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots this morning shift easterly this
afternoon ahead of an incoming weak cool front that passes over
the Big Lake tonight. Expect another wind shift to west
southwesterly by Wednesday morning, but remaining below 20
knots. Wave heights are forecast to be highest for the next few
days this morning near and northeast of Grand Marais.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy