Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
046 FXUS63 KDLH 240235 AAB AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 935 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fairly quiet weather this week with temperatures steadily warming back well above normal. - Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime next weekend or into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Increased PoPs over my western counties again late this evening. Area of rain showers along and behind the surface cold front continues to propagate eastward and appeared to intensify this evening. Several ASOS/AWOS sites over eastern ND and eastern SD reported measurable precipitation with the showers. Thus I have increased PoPs to a max of 60 percent over the next 4-6 hours as the front progresses eastward. There is still a zone of 925 to 850 mb FGEN supporting upward vertical motion ahead of the front. That band of FGEN along with a zone of strong isentropic forcing for ascent will move into central and north-central Minnesota later tonight. The 24.01Z RAP suggests these forcing mechanisms will weaken Tuesday morning. Therefore I continue to taper the showers down to sprinkles by 24.18Z. Remainder of the forecast appears on track. .PREV UPDATE...Issued at 535 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Increased PoPs slightly over central and north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead for tonight and Tuesday morning. Precipitation has been reaching the ground associated with the radar echoes over northwest Minnesota westward through central North Dakota over the past several hours. QPE has been low, but not zero. Webcams and automated stations reported light precip under a band of 925 to 850 mb frontogenesis. Expect that zone of ascent to propagate eastward along and behind a weak cool front through tomorrow morning. Changes to PoPs introduced "sprinkles" and a slight chance of measurable rain to my western counties. Think the precip chances will taper off by about 15Z Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Much cooler temperatures have arrived along with a much drier airmass. Some diurnal cumulus should dissipate quickly into the evening hours while mid to high clouds continue to push into the area. Another cool night is expected into Tuesday morning with some patchy frost possible, but we`re currently not expecting it to be widespread enough to need a Frost Advisory. A shortwave lengthens across the Northern Plains overnight, pushing a front across western Minnesota. Very dry air at the surface is likely to prevent much in the way of precipitation from this system. The rainiest solution from ensembles brings a trace to International Falls and Brainerd and most models keep any precipitation from falling. We`ve kept a 15% chance across our west, but rain is unlikely. As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, we`ll see ridging return, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to upper 70s mid to late week. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s heinous summer-like heat wave. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global ensembles bring back a widespread chance of precipitation sometime next weekend into next week as a disturbance returns from the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be dependent on how fast the ridge breaks down. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. An area of light rain and sprinkles was observed over northwest Minnesota west toward central North and South Dakotas associated with an eastward propagating cool front. Added in some -SHRA in TEMPO groups for HIB, INL, and BRD where the showers are most likely. Within the past hour one site in ND, Oakes K2D5, went down to MVFR visibility. Will have to watch the trends over the next few hours. If the lower visibilities persist with that portion of the line of showers, may need to lower BRD to MVFR for a time when the heaviest showers pass by. Winds will turn southwest behind the front Tuesday morning and may be a bit gusty in the late morning through afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 No significant weather or winds expected over the next couple days. Easterly winds become southerly overnight before a lake breeze circulation Tuesday afternoon brings winds to become east to northeasterly once again. Some gusts of 10-15 knots could be possible at the head of the lake which may bring some chop to the Twin Ports. Winds then turn to become southwesterly Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Huyck DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Levens