046
FXUS63 KDLH 150611
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
111 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be well above normal through much of the
  next week, at times 10-15F above normal.

- There will be a chance, 20-50%/15-25%, for
  showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.

- Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms will continue
  into next week but no widespread significant rainfall is
  expected into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A generally unimpressive weather day out there today, with
above normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and some
scattered showers with very isolated thunder so far. CAPE values
remain on the low side, generally below 1000j/kg, and deep
layer shear of only 20 knots. We do have a gradually weakening
cold front approaching the area, but it is just not strong
enough to serve as a decent focus for generating stronger
activity. The cloud cover over the area this afternoon should
gradually diminish from west to east tonight into Sunday. Sunday
there will be a similar pattern of scattered showers and
isolated storms, but displaced to the east as compared to today.
Sunday night into Monday and even Tuesday a weak impulse aloft
and some weak feature/boundary at the surface should be able to
generate another round of showers and isolated thunder, mainly
along and north of the Iron Range. This is all happening within
a pattern of southwesterly flow aloft, sandwiched between a
strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, and
a strong trough moving onto the west coast. This will keep our
temperatures on the warm side, with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

This rather blocky, slow to change pattern continues through
the middle of the week, but that upper level trough finally
pushes far enough to the east that we should begin seeing some
increasing precipitation chances for the latter half of the work
week. With the pattern continuing to bring well above normal
temperatures and the potential for a feed of gulf moisture this
far north, we may finally see some much needed rainfall with
drought developing across the CWA. The southwest flow will
continue to keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal
through most of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Primary concern in the near term is the development of fog and
low ceilings through mid morning. HIB is the most likely to see
IFR or lower VSBYs and CIGs this morning with DLH, BRD and HYR
expected to see MVFR or lower conditions. Fog activity looks to
remain south of INL, so have removed with this update. Fog lifts
by mid morning leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the
period. Light winds overnight will give way to gusty southwest
winds through the day Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening
hours at INL.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

East to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots today to slowly veer to
the east to southeast for tonight and Sunday. They will veer to
southerly at similar speeds Sunday night through Monday night.
With speeds remaining on the lower side, waves generally remain
below 2 feet through Monday. Shower chances may be accompanied
by some thunder this afternoon and night, then again Monday. Fog
should develop once again tonight in the southwest arm of the
lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...LE