990
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and thunderstorms will resume this afternoon. A
  few strong thunderstorms are possible in the western Brainerd
  Lakes.

- Another low will bring light rain to the region. Rainfall
  amounts have decreased significantly since the last forecast.

- A few more chances for precipitation this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Thursday/Weekend System:

Our dry period this morning will be short lived, as both global
and high res models hint at chances, albeit slight, for more
light rain starting as early as Thursday afternoon due to WAA
from the south ahead of this weekend`s system. In addition,
increase in instability and low level lapse rates, as well as
0-6km shear around 30 kts, some storms could be strong to severe
in the Brainerd Lakes region. Main threats will be hail up to
an inch and damaging winds from dry microbursts.

The main system will reach us Friday morning, and looks like it
could be another soaker. PWATs are not nearly as high for this
system but will still have PWATs an inch or more across most of
our area. The track of the low has shifted west and the
residence time for the heaviest precipitation has shifted west
with it. Therefore, rainfall amounts have decreased. Widespread
quarter to half inch is expected, with higher amounts along the
North Shore and north central Minnesota. Very little
instability with this system will limit thunderstorm formation,
but a few embedded storms are not out of the question. The
system should exit into Canada throughout the day Saturday.

Sunday-Next Week:

A deeper trough in the Mountain West will develop a surface low
Sunday that will likely take a more southern track than the
previous systems. However, ensembles are all over the board
with the placement of this low, and this will determine whether
we get another round of rain showers into early next week in the
northern quadrant of the low.

Mid next week, the Upper Midwest breathes a sigh if relief as we
may have a full day`s dry weather as a ridge moves over the
Northern Plains. This should be short-lived, however as an
active pattern resumes for the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The MVFR/IFR stratus deck is continuing south through the
Northland. Initial onset of the stratus also lowers visibility
as low as 1/4SM. DLH should continue to see improvement in
visibility, but may take a few hours for the stratus to lift. It
is also heading for BRD, but is not projected to reach the
terminal until after 15Z when mixing and increasing temperatures
should have already started to dissolve the stratus.

Another system will move in this evening with showers and
storms, particularly for BRD. There is a small chance (20%) for
showers and storms near HYR, but with a dry vertical profile
precipitation is not likely. So opted to leave out any mention
of precipitation. LLWS is possible at the end of the TAF period,
but confidence is too low to include in TAFs.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Winds will decrease throughout the morning along the North Shore
and waves have decreased as well, so the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled. Winds will increase again however this
evening and remain gusty through Friday. Occasional gales are
possible along the North Shore, but confidence is not high
enough to issue a gale headline. Gale potential will continue to
be monitored today.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML