584
FXUS63 KDMX 141744
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers this morning to early afternoon, otherwise
cloudy and dry elsewhere

- A few additional chances for showers and weak storms Sunday/Monday
east

- Warmer temperatures through the 80s over the next several
  days; dry until at least mid-late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Light shower activity continues over northeastern Iowa this morning
as the energy which lifted northward into Iowa remains overhead,
associated with the dissipating cyclone Francine largely remaining
over the Southern Great Plains. The system`s influences can be
further noticed by the thickening cloud cover across much of the
state, which has helped in keeping temperatures on the warmer side
overnight with values in the mid 60s to low 70s. Increased moisture
advection despite less favorable forcing per model guidance looks to
keep rain shower activity throughout much of the morning over
portions of eastern and northern Iowa, though gradually decreasing
as the vorticity advection decreases. Any additional accumulations
look to be minimal, around a tenth or so before drying out. Despite
persistent south/southeast low level flow, clouds overhead today
will result in highs around the upper 70s to low 80s. Model guidance
continues to show the decaying tropical system influence at least
over eastern Iowa through the rest of the weekend and into Monday,
with a few additional chances for on and off rain shower activity.
Though instability per soundings is favorable, very weak shear will
limit this potential, though thunder at times cannot be ruled out
over the next few days with any showers that develop over eastern
Iowa. Clearing gradually taking place over Iowa with cloud cover
departing and increased south/southeasterly flow will result in
warmer temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday into next
week.

Upper level ridging becomes widespread across the eastern CONUS,
while further west, a series of deepening troughs arrive off the
Pacific coast and pivot across the western CONUS through much of
next week. As of current long-range model solutions, any
precipitation potential over Iowa looks to be minimal until at least
midweek, though dry air overhead as soundings suggest keep much of
the activity at least over Nebraska into parts of western Iowa. By
the latter portions of the work week into next weekend does the
eastern ridging look to break down and a boundary associated with
one of the many troughs finally push across Iowa. However,
confidence on specific timing and impacts remains low given this
being several days out, so will have to watch closely. Otherwise
south/southeast low level flow will remain through much of next
week, with resulting temperatures remaining warmer than average for
the time of year as values reach through the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Broad MVFR stratus over central Iowa continues to rise with
diurnal heating and should lead to mostly VFR by mid to late
afternoon. Additional cumulus development in the clearer areas
of KOTM/KALO that could result in the return of some BKN cigs
and possibly brief MVFR. Cumulus may return by late Sunday
morning but bases appear higher though brief MVFR could be
possible again. Light south to southeast wind is expected much
of the period outside of a few instances of light and variable
wind overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Donavon