Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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872 FXUS63 KDTX 031945 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm up Tuesday with highs returning to the 80s. - Showers and some thunderstorms likely Wednesday as a cold front sweeps across the area. - Pattern shift for the latter half of the week brings below normal temperatures through at least the end of the week along with periodic chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Looking aloft, we currently find ourselves positioned in between an approaching longwave trough moving into the Plains and the exiting ridge stalling over the east coast. The surface is similar with high pressure now centered over eastern Canada and the NE conus but still resulting in anticyclonic flow over the eastern Great Lakes with southwesterly flow ahead of the next cold front still primarily held over the Upper MS Valley and into the Midwest off to our west. The trend in the forecast over the next 36 hours is to dry it out. There will be an opportunity for an isolated shower to pop up, mainly around the Saginaw Valley, but overall there just isn`t enough forcing to use the little diurnal instability we can build, even as PWATs reside over an inch+ through this stretch. For today, upper level ridge with anticyclonic flow down low, and with the low level jet over WI, we will remain dry. Tonight there will be a mid level shortwave rippling along a developing warm front draped across Mid MI. It will be weakening while approaching and the nocturnal jet driving it will be lifting north into the UP so there won`t be much to help it survive into the Saginaw Valley. Tuesday should be mostly dry yet again as a shortwave ridge lifts back into lower MI drying out the mid levels with the cold front still too far west to allow any jet forcing to ease into SE MI. Winds will turn a bit more out of the south which will encourage warm air advection and help high temps rise into the mid-upper 80s. Can`t rule out a couple showers trying to go up on lake breezes or in the higher terrain to the north or west, but overall will favor a dry forecast. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday brings better chances for precipitation as a southern stream wave lifts up into the approaching northern stream trough. Enhanced plume of theta e start entering southern MI around 09Z and spreads northward from there through Wednesday morning. This while the developing surface reflection on the approaching cold front pulls a warm front up through the region that morning followed by a cold front that afternoon/evening. Model soundings show tall skinny MUCAPE and SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with around 20-30 knots of shear. The longwave trough becoming negatively tilted will help sling the southern wave northward along with its moisture while the nose of the 130+ knot jet begins working into the area. Moral of the story, much more synoptically to help generate widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms Wednesday. SPC continues to offer a large area of General Thunderstorms across the region for this activity. The low amplitude longwave pattern will become more amplified mid to late week owning to a strong upper level jet around 140 knots entering the NW conus tonight into Tuesday morning, then passing through the Great Lakes Wednesday. Several reinforcing jet maxes then feed into the trough over the region heading through the weekend. The closed upper low sitting and spinning over the Great Lakes through the weekend will result in a cooler forecast (highs in the 60s on Friday, Low/mid 70s the rest of the week and weekend) and periodic chances for precipitation as several shortwaves are directed around the low over the area. && .MARINE... Upper level shortwave ridge sustains high pressure to the east today. Southeasterly winds remain gentle ahead of the approaching warm front on Tuesday. Chances for light showers are possible ahead of this front, mainly over northern Lake Huron. Winds behind the front stay southerly before Wednesday brings the arrival of the cold front, and with it chances for stronger showers and storms. Winds at the surface remain moderate to fresh, but strong flow aloft may provide the chances for a strong gust to occasionally mix down. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 AVIATION... Sunrise fog and stratus lifted into a broken fair weather cumulus field by late morning with the ramp-up of daytime heating. These clouds continue with scattered to broken VFR coverage through peak afternoon instability accompanied by a light/lake breeze modified easterly wind. A greater component of high clouds moves in this evening supplied both by decaying Midwest convection and residual mild level short wave energy. Storms redevelop upstream late today and tonight, however consensus of 12Z model solutions track activity to the west and north through Tuesday morning. A few hours of fog are possible again around sunrise but more likely an MVFR restriction given radiational cooling disruption brought by the high cloud mix and surface wind holding around 5 knots. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through this forecast period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......BC AVIATION.....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.