Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
584 FXUS63 KDTX 132315 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 715 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog will be possible Saturday and Sunday. - Seasonably warm and dry conditions prevail today through mid-week. && .AVIATION... Expansive area of high pressure maintains influence this period, ensuring VFR with cloud free conditions outside of intervals of cirrus. Position and strength of the high maintains a modest flow from a southeast to easterly direction. Forecast will continue to highlight a brief window for MVFR level visibility restrictions in shallow fog around daybreak. For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are not in the forecast for the foreseeable future. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 DISCUSSION... Rex Block resulting from a H5 591 dam ridge centered over The Soo and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine over the Mississippi Valley maintains seasonably dry and warm weather into the weekend. 13.12Z KDTX RAOB and forecast soundings corroborate the absence of diurnal cumulus this afternoon given large dewpoint depressions throughout most of the column and strong static stability. Patches of high cirrus from Francine may lift northward this evening and mix with a rather dense plume of western CONUS wildfire smoke aloft which would pose a negligible threat to surface conditions. Persistence forecast approach lends confidence in some degree of morning fog Saturday (and possibly Sunday) given the absence of broader advective processes, thereby supporting repeat conditions marked by highs in the low-mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to near 60F with southeast flow generally AOB 15 mph. The synoptic pattern starts to adjust early next week as the resident ridge shears/elongates eastward into the Atlantic, post-tropical low (Francine) dissolves, and the next potential (sub-)tropical disturbance tries to organize off the Carolina coast. In light of such a gradual unlock, expect similar conditions Monday and Tuesday as Lower Michigan resides within a split-flow configuration with H8 temps holding in the mid-teens (Celsius). Regarding the potential mid-week Mid-Atlantic system, only the 12Z (operational) GFS solution brings this wave all the way into the Ohio Valley, suggesting low-end chances for precipitation to brush Southeast Michigan. However, the 12Z Euro is the latest deterministic model to corroborate this scenario while some support does exist per select individual members of the GEFS/EPS/CMCE ensembles. MARINE... Northeastern high pressure continues to influence the region through the first half of next week. This system maintains dry conditions and generally light flow across the region though some gusts near 20kts will be possible over Lake Erie Saturday as the remnants of Francine tighten the gradient over the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.