690
FXUS63 KDVN 221034
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
534 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The cold front is moving through our area this morning...ahh.

- Rain with some weak thunderstorms will slowly moving east this
  morning, with mostly light QPF, except in the south counties.

- Low confidence is in the forecast regarding late this week
  into the weekend as an upper low interacts with the tropics in
  a blocking pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The cold front at 2 AM, is moving into our north counties this
morning, with dew points in the 50s just north of Highway 20.
Meanwhile, just south of the front, widespread 60s Tds.  This dry
air will allow us to see colder temperatures where rain is falling
behind the cold front this morning, as wet bulb temperatures crash
into the low 60s/upper 50s.

Rains are having a great trouble moving northeast of a Iowa City to
Quad Cities line, but this area should eventually saturate for some
rain before the front moves completely through towards sunrise.

The rain will be widespread in the south 1/3-1/2 of the CWA this
morning, with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms along the
cold front in the north.  So far, QPF has been rather light dry for
most areas north of I-80 tonight, and unfortunately, it looks like
most of today`s rains will be falling in south areas today as well.
The front should keep moving, and the next short wave should produce
showers and thunderstorms well south of our area today. For all
areas today, the combination of CAA, and clouds will allow for highs
to be in the upper 60s to low 70s today, with a mainly dry afternoon
expected, (especially north), allowing for a pleasant afternoon and
evening.

Tonight, temperatures should quickly fall to the 50s, with lows in
the mid 40s north to mid 50s south, where clouds are still in place
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

While many models are dry for Monday into Tuesday, there remains
another wave rotating around the bottom of the upper trof in the
Midwest in that period, as seen most vividly in the 00z EC solution.
These solutions are influencing the NBM to have some showers/weak
thunder in our area through Tuesday morning. I`m not confident on it
being this far north, but with cooler air aloft, I`ll keep these
pops in place.

Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday, as the
upper low digs well into the south, and moisture is cut off well to
the east of the region.  Wide diurnal temperatures are expected,
with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Friday into the weekend, there is a wide distribution on models
handling the interaction of the potential tropical system in the
Gulf of Mexico, the upper low over the southern CONUS, and a
blocking high over southeast Canada. This complicated interaction
may allow for some moisture to be eventually drawn up northwest into
the Midwest by late in the week. Thus far, we have low (20-30%) pops
for showers late this week, with a continuation of highs in the mid
to upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front is now moving through eastern Iowa, with winds
shifting to northwest near the Mississippi River around 12Z.
While mainly VFR conditions are currently found, despite an
area of rain over the area. This rain will persist, with an
isolated embedded storm possible through 15Z, then will decrease
and move southeast of the area. After 15Z, dry air will return
to lower levels, resulting in VFR weather again spreading over
the region, and mainly dry weather, though some spotty rains may
still be taking place.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin