621
FXUS63 KDVN 170753
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
253 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above normal temperatures continues into
  Saturday.

- There continues to be lower confidence in the timing of rain
  chances late week into the weekend due to differences between
  the models.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure stretches from the New England coast westward
into the Great Lakes at the surface and aloft. There are clear
skies across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast
Missouri early this morning. Temperatures at 2 AM range from 57
degrees at Macomb and Davenport to 70 degrees at Burlington.

Quiet weather is forecast over the next 24 hours as eastern
Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri remains on
the northwest side of a closed upper level low over the
Carolinas. Expect sunny skies today with southeasterly winds of
5 to 10 mph. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s. Clear skies are forecast tonight with
low temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in far northwest
Illinois to the lower 60s in far southeast Iowa and far
northeast Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The 500 mb pattern will transition from southwesterly flow aloft
as 500 mb ridging over the area finally breaks down allowing
for a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS for late
week into early next week. This will usher in more active
weather Thursday night into early next week. Before that, 500
mb ridging will prevail and continue to bring quiet weather and above
normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave
passing to our northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday will
allow for increasing clouds on Thursday morning, but think that
the best lift and moisture will be well to our northwest leaving
the forecast dry.

On Thursday, 500 mb ridging across the Plains begins to break
down resulting in amplified zonal flow across the CONUS with a
series of shortwave moving across the area Friday night into
early next week. However, there are timing and placement
differences between the different model runs as well as
between the  GFS, ECWMF,and Canadian. This is resulting in
widespread chances of showers and storms through the weekend
into early next week. Additionally temperatures cool to near
normal by Monday with high temperatures in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is brining quiet
weather to eastern Iowa TAF sites. VFR conditions are forecast
to prevail through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins