032
FXUS63 KDVN 140729
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
229 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm and generally dry conditions through much of
  next week.

- Some locations could see highs approach 90F Sunday through
  Wednesday!

- Rain chances spotty/isolated (20%) this weekend, but most will
  stay dry and even beyond into much of next week making for
  nearly 3 weeks without measurable rain!

- Next weekend may bring our best potential for measurable rain,
  as a seasonably strong cold front moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A Rex block formed between an upper level ridge/high from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast and the remnants of tropical
system will keep our weather stagnant. As a result, expect
more of the same with warm and mainly dry conditions.

Some mid/high cloudiness should linger today. Where the clouds
persist highs will likely be limited to the upper 70s, but
many should see sufficient solar insolation to push highs once
again into the lower to mid 80s. Sunday, with even more
sunshine highs area-wide should top out well into the 80s,
with even a few locations nearing 90F! With dew points
seasonably high and well into the 60s it should make for a very
summer feel.

Most models continue to support some mid level vorticity advection
through the weekend on the western periphery of the Great Lakes
upper level ridge. This coupled with the increase in moisture
with PWATs near 1.5 inches may support a few spotty showers (20%)
at times, but most areas will stay dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For much of next week the pattern looks to feature an amplifying
mid/upper level ridge from south Texas through the Midwest ahead
of western CONUS trough. This will foster unseasonably warm
conditions into mid-week, with highs likely 5-10+ degrees above
normal and ranging from the mid 80s to around 90F. In addition,
it looks to remain predominantly dry.

By late next week and especially next weekend the western CONUS
trough is projected to start moving into the region, accompanied
by a seasonably strong cold front. This has the potential to
provide the area with our best prospects for measurable rain in
some time, so it will be something we`ll monitor closely in the
days ahead. For many our last measurable rain occurred over the
last few days of August, and the anticipation is that with the
Drought Monitor update on Thursday we should see some expansion
of abnormally dry conditions (D0) across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Predominantly VFR expected through the TAF cycle. There is an
area of lower clouds with MVFR ceilings lurking just west of
KCID and KBRL. However, with a continued E/SE flow in the cloud
bearing layer the feeling is the bulk of the lower clouds and
MVFR ceilings should stay to the west of the terminals, as also
supported by consensus of the latest hi-res guidance. Will
monitor though for the potential of a transitory MVFR ceiling
at either site through Saturday AM. While spotty precipitation
can`t be ruled out at times during the period, confidence is
far too low for mention with coverage anticipated at just 10-20%.
Winds will be from the E/SE at generally 5-10 kt though a locally
higher gust is possible Saturday PM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure