677
FXUS63 KDVN 291912
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
212 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is forecast through Thursday with high temperatures
  in the lower to mid 70s.

- There are several chances for showers and storms Friday night
  through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Broad high pressure stretching from the upper Great Lakes into
the mid-Mississippi River Valley was providing a beautiful,
quiet afternoon to all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and
northeast Missouri. Other than some diurnal CU, skies features
plenty of sun with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

This high will slowly move east over the next 24-36 hours, and will
continue to influence our weather during the short term period.
Expect clear to partly cloudy skies, with lows tonight in the
40s/50s and highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will
be light & variable tonight, and will increase out of the
southeast Thursday to around 10-15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Thursday Night through Friday night...

High pressure will be nearly out of the area Thursday night, but we
should remain dry with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Temperatures will vary depending on cloud cover, with
cooler values near 50 in far northwest Illinois and values near 60
in east central Iowa and northeast Missouri.

For Friday, much of the day will be dry before chances of showers
and thunderstorms increase with the approaching positively tilted
shortwave to the west. The threat is most favored during the late
afternoon and evening areawide, with the NBM continuing to show
chances around 50-60%. There is still some disagreement amongst
deterministic guidance on placement, so look for additional
refinements to this forecast. The threat of severe weather is low
with higher instabilities remaining to our west.

Saturday on...

A shortwave filled zonal flow will be in place across the area
this weekend into early next week, which favors shower and
storms chances each day. However, there will be plenty of dry
time between each system so not expecting a total washout.
Confidence in a severe weather threat is low at this time,
though I think we`ll need to keep an eye on early next week as
instability increases with warming temperatures and moisture.

Speaking of which, temperatures will gradually warm with highs
back near 80 Saturday. The warming trend will continue into
early next week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours as high pressure moves across the area. Light north winds
will become light & variable this evening, and will increase
out of the southeast to around 10 kts Thursday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

No changes with the new forecasts this morning on area rivers.

The Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa will continue to rise to just
under Moderate flood by Thursday morning. The Wapsipinicon River near
De Witt continues to rise and is expected to have a double
crest in Major flood over the next 5 days due to routed flow
upstream. The crest of 13.3 feet will be the highest the river
has been since June 2020.

The lower portions of the Iowa River is cresting or will be near
crest today. The Skunk River at Augusta will continue to rise
to 14.4 feet Thursday evening which is below flood stage.

On the mainstem Mississippi, the river is expected to rise into
Minor flood from New Boston LD 17 downstream to Burlington and
also at Gregory Landing.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck
HYDROLOGY...Gross