Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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025 FXUS63 KDVN 100757 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 257 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant temperatures through tonight. - Turning hot and humid by mid week. - MRGL Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday AND Wednesday (northwest). - SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Early today, a secondary cold front is bringing a band of rather high based stratus southward. This should not last too long today, given that the clearing north edge is moving faster than the south edge, resulting an a gradual narrowing of the band of clouds. This cloud band though could result in a complicated "warm" band of temperatures in an otherwise cool night. We will handle that trend in updates, as it will affect the diurnal curve today. The bulk of the day will be mostly sunny today, and like past days, we`re expecting to mix deeply, and see both winds increasing, and humidity dropping through the day. Despite highs topping out in the lower 70s north to mid 70s central and south, the dewpoints mixing down to the upper 30s to low 40s will bring another day of humidity levels dropping under 30% at times. Wind gusts should be lower than yesterday, with max potentially in the northeast counties around 25 mph today. Tonight, clear and quiet (near calm) conditions will lead to a strong radiational cooling night, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will see a quick transition to strong warm advection, with dewpoints remaining low in the 40s to low 50s through the afternoon. This will again result in a warm, breezy day, with humidity dropping to the 30-40% range through the afternoon hours. SPC has introduced a MRGL Risk (level 1 of 5) for Tuesday / Tuesday night, as a short wave rides up over the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. This is rather contingent on cells initiating in a marginally moist atmosphere Tuesday evening to our west, and tracking into the CWA. The HRRR seems to be the most bullish on this potential, with most other models far less aggressive. Shear looks to be sufficient to have hail and gusty winds possible...but the moisture return to the low 60s Td on the HRRR seems a low possibility given our dry top soil already in place. Anyhow, will message this threat, and Thursday`s in the HWO and graphics today. Pops for rainfall Tuesday afternoon and night remain under 20%...so don`t be too surprised to see spotty coverage of storms if they form. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow develops across the northern United States, pulling warmer air into the forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and also it will become more humid as the week progresses. Readings will be pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the week, with dewpoints into the 60s. Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined. Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry weather. Highs will be in the 80s. Sunday: Another upper level trough swings out of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next chance of thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions return with some locations pushing into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with generally light north winds and very good visibility. A period of lower VFR clouds will affect DBQ through the early morning hours, around 3500 AGL for a cig, but this band is thinning out, and should not greatly affect locations to the south. Also, a reporting problem at the DBQ airport has limited observations potentially until the FAA tower opens in the morning, thus, I have "AMD NOT SKED" for DBQ...meaning no amendments will be issued tonight. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Ervin