110
FXUS63 KDVN 180551
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat is on for the remainder of the day through Tuesday, as a
  Heat Advisory continues across the entire area

- Some isolated showers and storms remain possible this
  afternoon

- Relief from the heat will come for some in the form of a cold
  front that will sink southeastward Tuesday night/Wednesday

- The pattern will remain active for Wednesday through the
  upcoming weekend, with periodic chances of showers and storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Heat and humidity are in full force across our area, thanks to a
dominant upper-level high pressure and ridging across the eastern
CONUS. As of 2 PM this afternoon, temperatures across the area have
reached into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the
middle/upper 90s to near 100 degrees in isolated spots. The synoptic
pattern doesn`t change much tonight through Tuesday, with the upper
ridge remaining strong and high theta-e values settled in place.
Overnight lows won`t fall much to provide relief from the heat, with
temperatures expected in the lower to middle 70s. In fact, the ECMWF
EFI for low temperatures has values between 0.7 to 0.9 for tonight,
indicating unusually warm low temperatures. Tuesday might be a hair
cooler than today, but still highs should warm into the lower to
middle 90s with heat indices in the middle/upper 90s to near 100
degrees. No matter how you slice it, it will continue to be hot, so
make sure you`re taking extra precautions to protect yourself from
the heat. With overnight temperatures remaining nearly 15 degrees
above seasonal averages, and record warm low temperatures on the
table, even the relief from the heat overnight will be
relatively minimal.

As far as chances of showers and storms are concerned, we aren`t
looking at any potent mechanism for convective initiation like we
had yesterday with the MCV. However, with the heat and humidity as
high as it is, instability is rather high currently, with values of
SBCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg and eroding SBCIN, some isolated
instability-driven storms could develop. Effective shear is very
minimal if not non-existent, so any storms that develop this
afternoon shouldn`t be able to become sustained.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday, a pattern shift will
occur, with the upper ridge gradually breaking down and an upper-
level longwave trough forming over the Intermountain West states. An
attendant cold front will sink southward Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, which the latest CAMs show showers and thunderstorms
increasing across our northeastern Iowa counties. Both the deep-
layer shear and instability profiles appear to be meager along the
front, so there is no concern for any strong to severe storms with
it. There is some uncertainty on just how far south the front will
get, so we will have to watch and make adjustments, but the NBM has
30 to 70 percent chances of precipitation before 1 PM Wednesday.

Our area appears to remain in the right location for periodic
chances of showers and storms through the end of the week, with
continued shortwave ridging through the end of the long-term period.
Strong to severe storm threat appears very low, given continued
meager values of instability and shear. In fact, the CSU machine-
learning severe probs continue to indicate either very low
probabilities or none at all for this period. Temperatures will be
greatly dependent on where showers and storms form. For locations
that stay dry, very warm temperatures will continue, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. For those
that get under showers/storms, look to cool down to the 70s and
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conds expected through this taf cycle. The one exeption is
at KDBQ where there is the potential for MVFR cigs early this
morning, closer to a stalled frontal boundary across northern IA
and southern WI. However, this is a low confidence forecast.
Otherwise, a line of thunderstorms is forecast to move southeast
towards eastern IA after 06z/19, so this may need to be included
in the next set of TAFS. South winds will be gusting to around
25-30 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

June 18:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 77/2018

June 19:
KDBQ: 76/1931
KMLI: 78/1953

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Haase
CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech