Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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564 FXUS63 KDVN 170848 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 348 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been issued area-wide for today through Tuesday for peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Make sure to limit time outdoors during the afternoon, take frequent breaks in the shade if you have to be out, and drink plenty of water! - A front dropping in from the northwest will bring occasional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Thursday. - Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the middle to end of the week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across central and southern sections of the outlook area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Today through Tuesday: As of 3 AM this morning, a very warm and humid air mass was in place over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A shortwave trough will track well to our north today, riding along a nearly stalled front stretching from northern Nebraska to central Minnesota into NW Wisconsin. An increasing pressure gradient south of the boundary will lead to gusty southerly winds locally, reaching 25-30 mph this afternoon. Plenty of sun today combined with a deep and well mixed boundary layer, and 850mb temps near +20 C, should support widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints today are a little more uncertain due to drying effects of the diurnal mixing. Current thinking is dewpoints will hover in the mid to upper 60s, but could occasionally be near 70 F this morning and again by the evening. It`s also possible dewpoints briefly mix down to the lower 60s for a few hours this afternoon. Regardless of the exact scenario that plays out, it is going to be hot with peak afternoon heat indices between 95 to around 100 degrees. Since today and tomorrow are our first really hot days of the season, thought a Heat Advisory was warranted to better message the potential for heat related impacts. Isolated storms (10-20%) may pop up during peak daytime heating today and Tuesday as SBCIN erodes during the afternoon. Coverage is anticipated to be very low and most locations will likely stay dry. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mid to Late Week: A more active pattern is expected to develop by the middle of the week as the surface front draped across the Upper Midwest early in the week gradually sinks further to the south. The highest rain chances are across the northwest third or so of the forecast area. NBM chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday range from near 70% in the northwest to 20-30% in the southeast. There is uncertainty on how far south the front will reach later Wednesday into Thursday. For locations that stay south of the boundary, high temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 90s. This is currently favored for areas along and south of I-80 where peak heat indices could again reach the mid/upper 90s. A few additional mid-level shortwaves are expected to overtop the ridge into our area, so additional chances of precipitation will be in place through the end of the week. Chances for strong to severe storms remains low, which is evident in the CSU severe weather probabilities indicating either very low probabilities or none at all for this period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR will prevail tonight into tomorrow with steady southerly winds, increasing to 15-25 kts on Monday. A few isolated storms may develop Monday afternoon; coverage is expected to stay low so did not mention thunder in the TAFs for now. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 17: KBRL: 98/1944 KMLI: 98/1897 Record Warm Minimum Temperatures: June 17: KDBQ: 74/1921 KMLI: 78/2018 June 18: KDBQ: 74/1921 KMLI: 77/2018 June 19: KDBQ: 76/1931 KMLI: 78/1953 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech/Schultz AVIATION...Uttech CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech