660
FNUS21 KWNS 250607
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains.
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into
the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated
mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High
Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with
antecedent hot/dry conditions.

As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west
TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH
recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through
early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and
EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500
mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this
afternoon.

A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across
eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds
across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high
probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM
into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for
gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values
has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile
for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread
Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC
across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC.

Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of
south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in
the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support
sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max
over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest)
should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these
conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both
deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement
in this scenario.

..Moore.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$