143
FNUS21 KWNS 151600
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The previous forecast remains on track, with minor changes made to
the Elevated areas to reflect the latest guidance consensus.
Additionally, a couple of dry strikes may accompany isolated
thunderstorms along the Front Range in eastern Colorado (and
surrounding areas), but overall modest fuel receptiveness suggests
that lightning-induced fire ignitions should remain a localized
concern, so no isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added.

..Squitieri.. 09/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/

...Synopsis...
Preceding an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast,
enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread the Great Basin,
while a related surface cyclone evolves over northern NV. Deep
boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a
tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface cyclone, will
yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent
RH over southern/central NV. Given modestly receptive fuels here,
elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon.

Additionally, large-scale ascent accompanying the amplifying
midlevel trough will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across
the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. While quick storm
motions and limited precipitation with some of this activity could
yield a risk of lightning-induced ignitions, marginal fuels should
generally limit the threat.

Over the southern High Plains, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds
will develop amid a warm/dry boundary layer near a lee trough during
the afternoon. This will favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$