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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
284 FNUS21 KWNS 121704 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$