745
ACUS01 KWNS 141234
SWODY1
SPC AC 141232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph
will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front
Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with
sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible
across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening.

...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas...
A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early
this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the
central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front
is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central
High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow
maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central
High Plains toward the Front Range.

Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of
Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa
vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching
shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable
deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with
initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief
tornado or two.

A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time,
as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely
scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in
areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely
organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface
boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading
eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight.

...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies...
Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a
weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest
instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late
afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to
support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and
strong-to-severe wind gusts.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England...
A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New
England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will
develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm
development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more
isolated development possible farther south into parts of the
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear
will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters
and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant
threat of locally damaging winds and hail.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024

$$