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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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649 ACUS01 KWNS 180050 SWODY1 SPC AC 180048 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 $$