712
ACUS01 KWNS 190558
SWODY1
SPC AC 190556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN
EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST FL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including
the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph
may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated.

...KS/OK vicinity...
An active severe-weather day is expected during the late afternoon
to mid-evening. Primary changes this outlook are to increase wind
and hail probabilities with above-average guidance agreement
regarding the likelihood of supercells evolving into multiple linear
bows. Significant severe, from both hail and especially wind,
appears likely. How far downstream higher-end intensity threats will
persist towards the lower plains is more uncertain.

General thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing within a
low-level warm theta-e advection regime across parts of the central
Great Plains. This will probably persist through much of the morning
into the afternoon, becoming more centered on the Mid-MO Valley to
Upper Midwest. Pronounced differential boundary-layer heating is
expected between this early-day activity and full insolation that
yields hot surface temperatures across the southern High Plains.
With a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points overspreading
much of western/central OK into central KS, beneath a plume of very
steep mid-level lapse rates, a strongly unstable airmass will
develop with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg becoming common.

A strengthening upper-level jet across the Southwest, nosing over
the southern Rockies, should aid in dryline sharpening by late
afternoon. Initial very high-based thunderstorms should form off the
Raton Mesa behind the dryline, while other storms form along the
dryline near the TX Panhandle/western OK border, and in the
north-central KS vicinity near the warm front. The far southern
dryline storms in northwest OK and near the warm front in KS should
remain semi-discrete longer, and will be most capable of producing
very large hail and a couple tornadoes. Between these two corridors,
CAM signals are fairly consistent that a mix of outflow-dominated
clusters with embedded supercells will move east-northeast during
the evening. This includes evolution into linear bowing segments
with forecast soundings, indicating potential for intense
rear-inflow jet development. Given the highly favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with the impinging of a mid-level
jetlet across the southern High Plains, this scenario appears
probable.

The southern to central Great Plains low-level jet will strengthen
during the evening, which should result in a large MCS with embedded
bowing structures persisting after dusk. CAM guidance is fairly
quick to indicate diminishing intensity as MLCIN rapidly increases
across much of OK into at least southeast KS. But given the
potential for prolific, organized severe wind swaths upstream, have
increased severe probabilities downstream from the Mid-MO Valley and
deeper into OK.

...Western NE to western/central SD...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the northern
portion of the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening as
a narrow plume of mid to upper 50s surface dew points spreads north.
With a more confined and more modestly buoyant warm-moist sector
relative to KS southward, overall threat should consist of isolated
to scattered large hail and severe wind.

...FL...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of
a slow-moving, positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast.
Best potential for a few supercells should be focused along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze across parts the central to south
peninsula. Favorable deep-layer shear, in conjunction with large
buoyancy, should foster a predominant threat of large hail, with
isolated damaging winds possible as well.

..Grams/Bentley.. 05/19/2024

$$