118
ACUS01 KWNS 160038
SWODY1
SPC AC 160037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail
may occur this evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the
western U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the
central Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is located
over much of the central and northern Plains, where surface
dewpoints are generally in the lower to mid 60s F. Due to surface
heating, most of the airmass has become moderately unstable.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the
moist airmass from eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and
eastern Wyoming. This activity will continue to move northeastward
across the central and northern High Plains this evening, with a
gradual expansion in coverage expected. WSR-88D VWPs near the
instability axis have supercell wind profiles, with veering winds in
the low-levels and 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. In
addition, forecast soundings have low to mid-level lapse rates
around 8 C/km, which is also evident on the 00Z Rapid City sounding.
This environment will support an isolated severe threat this
evening. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary
threats.

..Broyles.. 09/16/2024

$$