Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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528 ACUS01 KWNS 190053 SWODY1 SPC AC 190052 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 $$