Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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649 ACUS01 KWNS 140102 SWODY1 SPC AC 140100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN/CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Midwest. Large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest... A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from northern MO into west-central IL. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg) and moderate west-northwesterly deep-layer shear will continue to support supercells within the ongoing cluster for a few hours this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther west, deep-layer shear is more marginal across the central Great Plains, but sufficient to support severe-storm potential in the presence of strong buoyancy. The strongest cells will remain capable of producing large hail this evening, though there may be some tendency for modest upscale growth, with a threat of severe gusts of 60-80 mph as convection moves through a very warm and well mixed environment. Between the two primary areas of convection, additional development remains possible along a front within a conditionally favorable environment from northeast KS into northwest MO. Any storms that can mature and develop in this region would also pose a threat of large to very large hail and severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/14/2024 $$