Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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287 ACUS01 KWNS 251626 SWODY1 SPC AC 251625 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible across parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest, late this afternoon and evening. ...OH Valley... A large but weakening MCS is spreading southeastward across parts of OH/IN/IL, with a broken line of strong cells along the leading line. The western flank of this activity over IL may intensify by mid afternoon, spreading into parts of eastern MO and southern IL/IN, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ...IA/MO/NE... Farther west, a hot, humid air mass is present today across much of MO, southern IA, and eastern NE. Widely scattered intense thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon - mainly along a boundary from southern IA into eastern NE. These storms would be in a sufficiently sheared environment for supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to sag southward through the evening. Models differ on evolution of storms overnight, with some solutions suggesting a larger MCS building into southern MO by the end of the period. ...SD/NE... An axis of southeasterly low-level winds and dewpoints in the mid 60s to 70s extends from the Black Hills region into southeast SD and central NE. Strong heating in this area will result in ample CAPE, leading to scattered afternoon and evening storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderately strong west-northwest flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/25/2024 $$