792
ACUS01 KWNS 270110
SWODY1
SPC AC 270109

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind
gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio
Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and
to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

...01z Update Western US...
An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it
emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong
ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms
over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization
with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying
upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With
fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk
for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more
hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been
expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV.

...Red River Valley Vicinity...
Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant
outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red
River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist
air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg)
beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and
organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm
development/organization appears probable this evening despite
relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be
the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint
spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be
possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained
rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster
is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds
into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along
the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening.

...Southeast US into the Northeast...
Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of
the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this
evening, these clusters have shown organization with self
propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but
increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great
Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the
KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of
diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear
should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening.
Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more
hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible.

...Front Range...
Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing
from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for
ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge
will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively
moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will
likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds
and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any
more persistent clusters.

..Lyons.. 06/27/2024

$$