528
ACUS01 KWNS 050102
SWODY1
SPC AC 050100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and
southern Oklahoma this evening.  Large to very large hail will be
possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph
potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into
tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri...
A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue
south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the
evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty
how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat,
which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast
Oklahoma convection.

...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma...
Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over
the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm
temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are
cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma
drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and
become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN
RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large
hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before
growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind
threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Midwest to the Upper Midwest...
Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota.
However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail
or isolated damaging wind gusts.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat
for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2024

$$