Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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253 ACUS01 KWNS 020542 SWODY1 SPC AC 020541 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 $$