085
ACUS01 KWNS 221629
SWODY1
SPC AC 221627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas
to western Kentucky.

...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley...
Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will
continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the
south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that
extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle
Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the
south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from
the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas.

Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector
will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as
the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of
the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will
largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective
shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated
convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some
stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment.

Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to
locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around
1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the
evening.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024

$$