588
ACUS01 KWNS 210042
SWODY1
SPC AC 210040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts are expected this evening across southern
New England. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of
the north-central High Plains.

...01z Update...

A southward-propagating MCS has evolved over southern New England,
along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies. This activity
developed well ahead of the main cold front, along a prefrontal
low-level confluence zone, and is advancing steadily south across MA
at this time. Surface temperatures remain quite warm across this
region with readings holding in the 80s to near 90F. It appears
adequate buoyancy is holding across interior southern New England
such that this complex should move of the coast with an attendant
risk for locally damaging winds.

Weak mid-level disturbance is shifting east across the central High
Plains this evening. A substantial complex of storms has evolved
ahead of this feature, extending from northeast CO-NE
Panhandle-south-central SD. While this activity has produced very
large hail earlier in its convective cycle, a bowing squall line has
emerged over Cherry County NE, and this portion of the MCS may
generate severe winds as it surges east within a focused
warm-advection zone. LLJ will increase markedly across the central
Plains over the next few hours, supporting forward propagation
toward southeast SD late this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/21/2024

$$