Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
512 FNUS22 KWNS 161912 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior forecast. The latest model guidance has shown increasing humidity and rain chances across much of the High Plains. However, at least a few hours of strong southerly winds (20-25 mph) will likely interact with reasonably dry fuels and RH below 30%. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before rain and the cold front approach. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible across parts of southwest CO and eastern UT, but fuels here are not receptive. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West will impinge on the central High Plains during the day. Here, a tightening pressure gradient along a pronounced lee trough, and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These winds should overlap 20-25 percent RH for a few hours, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area from the west during the evening. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon (prior to the arrival of precipitation). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$