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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
976 ACUS02 KWNS 251725 SWODY2 SPC AC 251723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe thunderstorms through the period. One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km, suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent, but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop. However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for categorical upgrades. Additional storms are expected along the southward developing cold front during the late afternoon into evening closer to the OH River in southern IN and central KY. Weaker shear will limit longevity of more organized cells, but strong instability and steep lapse rates will still support localized strong gusts and marginal hail. ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex into MS... Most forecast guidance, including various CAMs, are in good agreement that convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning across the Ozarks. There is more uncertainty regarding the evolution of this activity through the day. However, it seems likely that convection will either continue to develop south across parts of OK/northeast TX/AR/LA and MS. Southwesterly low-level winds will remain light, but vertically veering profiles with strengthening north/northwesterly flow above 700 mb will foster around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes across parts of OK/TX/AR/LA. Shear will be weaker with southeast extent, but strong storms may persist southward into central MS as well. A developing cold pool, coupled with strong instability and PW values approaching 2 inches, will support maintenance/re-intensification of morning activity as outflow propagates southward. This activity will mainly pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts, and the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been extended southwestward with the Day 2 update. If current trends persist, portions of this area may need an upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) risk in subsequent outlooks. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered along the Rockies on Wednesday. However, forecast guidance depicts a weak shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima rotating through the ridge in the vicinity of the central Rockies and emerging into the High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak, but vertically veering profiles suggest around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes will be possible. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This should aid in transient organized cells amid modest boundary-layer moisture. Isolated strong/severe gusts and large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/25/2024 $$