839
ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will
be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and
central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of
the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is
forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward
across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong
instability will likely be in place across much of this moist
airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that
heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence.
These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional
convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow
increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings
have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an
isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in
eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km.
Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains
of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where
low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late
afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid
evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger
instability.

...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from
the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist
and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern
half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development
will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability
in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty
concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move
southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late
afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern
Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5
C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail,
with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts
suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level
convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms
becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage
threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late
evening.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2024

$$