143
ACUS02 KWNS 311734
SWODY2
SPC AC 311733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, may develop
across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon,
before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the
adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a
risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will extend from the Tennessee Valley to the
Northeast Saturday with a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs
extending west from there across the central and western CONUS. The
strongest of these will be near the Mid-Mississippi Valley with an
associated weak surface low moving northward near the Mississippi
River during the day and through the Lower Ohio River Valley during
the evening and overnight period. Farther west, some weak lee
troughing will occur from the central to the northern High Plains as
a shortwave crosses the Mountains, particularly Saturday night.

...Central High Plains...
A relatively diffuse dryline will be present across eastern Colorado
and Southwest Wyoming during the day with some sharpening and
increasing convergence during the afternoon as lee troughing
strengthens. Strong heating should erode inhibition by early
afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Therefore, expect
high-based thunderstorm development across most of the dryline from
eastern Wyoming/NE Panhandle to southeast Colorado amid 35 to 40
knots of effective shear. Supercell storm mode will be favored
initially, but should transition into one or more clusters by late
afternoon/early evening given the deeply mixed thermodynamic profile
favorable for strong downbursts. There is an increased signal for a
forward propagating MCS to persist into northwest Oklahoma during
the late evening, particularly from the HRRR and WRF-ARW. In fact,
the HRRR indicates a continued threat through the overnight period
into central Oklahoma. However, this is contingent on upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints advecting northward and resulting in increasing
instability Saturday night across western and central Oklahoma.
While possible, the presence of this better quality moisture is
quite uncertain given Day 1 outflow boundaries continue to move
south across Texas near mid-day Friday and additional convection
Friday afternoon/evening which will impact moisture quality.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will result in an uncapped airmass along the dryline
from eastern New Mexico to Far West Texas by early afternoon. A
relative weakness in the mid-level flow across eastern New Mexico
may limit storm organization somewhat in this region. However, the
deeply-mixed airmass and moderate instability will support a large
hail and severe wind threat. A more organized storm threat is likely
from the Trans Pecos to the Big Bend where a stronger (35-40 knot)
subtropical jet streak overspreads the region. A few supercells are
expected in this area with the potential for severe wind gusts, 2+
inch hail, and perhaps a tornado.

...Southeast Texas into the Southeast...
A moist airmass will be present from Southeast Texas to southern
Mississippi on Saturday with strong instability developing by mid
afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the sea breeze by
mid afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak (~25 knots), but may be
sufficient for some multicell clusters capable of damaging wind
gusts. Better shear will be present closer to the remnant mid-level
shortwave trough MCV moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but
surface heating will be limited in this region which will likely
prevent more robust updraft development capable of utilizing this
more favorable shear.

..Bentley.. 05/31/2024

$$