962
ACUS02 KWNS 171725
SWODY2
SPC AC 171723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts
of Nebraska and Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day
2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and
troughing entrenched over the West.

A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is
expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the
Dakotas through the period.  This progression will be reflected at
the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward
across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the
Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains.  Tuesday night, the front should
cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper
Great Lakes region.

...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas...
Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the
period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish
through the day.  Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift
northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across
northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front.

Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon
destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving
along the front.  This should support storm development from
northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the
18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame.

While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of
the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal
zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell
organization.  Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of
SLGT risk across this region.  Potential should maximize through
late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark.

..Goss.. 06/17/2024

$$