Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
293 ACUS02 KWNS 181740 SWODY2 SPC AC 181739 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 $$