302
ACUS02 KWNS 241728
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon
and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may
occur.

...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes...
Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is
low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How
MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate
tomorrow`s potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general
trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward
in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where
confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening
is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes.

An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the
central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated
severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall
weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the
cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a
more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE
the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for
one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to
locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely
develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly
influenced by morning convection.

Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow
will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist
sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and
upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is
possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will
intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario
is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front
and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to
Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop
within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from
western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.

The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail
potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA
portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the
western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly
mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within
multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more
corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat
could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and
possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the
organized severe risk remains rather uncertain.

Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles,
depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater
predictability across guidance.

..Grams.. 06/24/2024

$$